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November 2001 Manufacturing Business Conditions Reflect New Optimism
December 2001
The results of the November Business Conditions Report, released by the Precision Metalforming Association (PMA), reflect the first forecast of optimism since the September 11 attacks. Conducted monthly, the Business Conditions Report is an economic indicator for the manufacturing industry.
When asked to compare general economic activity for the next three months with today, the survey reflected new optimism. Out of a sample of 198 manufacturing companies, 24% felt economic activity would go up in the coming months (an increase of 13% from October). Fifty-three percent expected activity to remain the same (a 13% increase from October), while only 23% predicted a further downward turn (a 26% decrease from October). A year ago to date, 31% expected economic activity to remain the same, 58% expected a decline and only 11% felt it would go up.
Respondents expected to see a 35% increase in incoming orders during the next three months (an increase of 17% from October). Forty percent projected no change in orders (no change from October) and 25% predicted a decrease over the next three months (a 17% decrease from November). A year ago to date, 21% expected an increase in orders, 39% expected no change and 46% expected orders to decrease.
Forty-nine percent of participants reported plant workforce on short time or layoff for the month of November (3% increase from the month of October). This figure compares to 14% on short time or layoff one year ago to date and 20% in January 2001.
The PMA Business Conditions Report summarizes the responses of approximately 30% of PMA?s manufacturing members. Since 1979, the monthly Business Conditions Report has been administered by PMA staff. Full report results are available to PMA member companies.
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