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Stainless output to improve
February 2002
Western world stainless steel production dropped considerably in 2001 compared to the year earlier figure. A modest but significant improvement is anticipated in 2002 but the peak values achieved in the first year of the millennium are not likely to be surpassed until 2003.
Total stainless steel output in the world, excluding CIS and China, in 2001 is expected to be reported at 17.9 million tonnes - a reduction of 700,000 tonnes (3.8 percent). Our forecast for 2002 is 18.4 million tonnes with small gains anticipated in most regions.
EU production slipped in 2001 by around 3 percent. This year will start slowly but pick up in the second half to reach 7.8 million tonnes. The mills are likely to regulate steelmaking during the first three months.
The Japanese mills are reducing output to balance supply and demand. The final figure for this year is forecast to be down marginally at 3.75 million tonnes. Domestic consumption is unlikely to improve in the short term.
A pick up is anticipated in the US over the next twelve months as exports decline. It is expected that output to be approaching 2 million tonnes as the domestic producers regain market share after the disastrous situation last year.
South Korean stainless production held up remarkably well in 2001, given the poor market conditions in Asia. It is expected that a further small improvement this year - rising to 1.65 million tonnes - partly to satisfy domestic demand but also for export to China.
Taiwanese home consumption decreased last year as overseas sales of manufactured goods to the US faltered. Furthermore, direct exports of stainless steels to China went down due to regulatory difficulties. Overseas demand should be better in 2002. Crude steel output of 1.25 million tonnes should be achievable.
Further growth in output is anticipated in most of the remaining countries. Global market conditions will be better. Gains should be made in South Africa and Canada - providing a 5 percent expansion in this "others" category.
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