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Chinese demand helps boost global steel flat products output in 2002
January 2003
Flat products production expanded in the main industrialised nations thoughout 2002 - partly due to the higher US tariff rates from the section 201 measures and from an estimated increase in consumption of up to 15 million tonnes. A decline in construction demand in many developed countries has adversely affected long products supply.
Total rolled steel production in the European Union in 2002 will be below the figure recorded in the previous twelve months. A further decrease is anticipated for 2003. EU consumption is forecast to decline as manufacturing demand slips. The outlook for construction is also weak. As 2002 progressed, demand for strip mill products increased when prices leapt and customers rebuilt inventories. Commented MEPS International; "We now expect flat products? output being marginally higher than in 2001. In contrast, we foresee long products production being down by approximately 1 percent."
South Korean rolled steel production will be around 1.1 million tonnes higher in 2002, compared to the year earlier figure. In 2003, a similar increase is anticipated as the economy grows. Our estimate for flat products production in 2002 is almost 23 million tonnes - down slightly on the outturn in the preceding year. This figure would have been even greater but for a refurbishment to one of POSCO?s hot strip mills in the Spring. Long products output was up by more than 1.5 million tonnes due to a strong construction sector.
US shipments of rolled carbon steel products in 2002 are still expected to be above the outturn in the prior year. The figure for 2003 is forecast to be even higher as previously closed capacity comes back on stream. However, real demand is not likely to improve but import volumes should decline. Flat products shipments in 2002 will be well above 60 million tonnes. The poor state of the building and construction sectors reduced demand and left the long products producers short of orders, with the resultant slippage in supply.
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